Conflict in Iraq

The Cabinet might have been split over the issue of war with Iraq, and there's little doubt a conflict has been inevitable for some time - but what's your view? Caterer's news team talks to major operators in hospitality and finds that most are keeping a close eye on costs and are expressing a confident attitude that when the conflict ends, business will improve.

Kit Chapman, Castle hotel & Brazz restaurants, Taunton

"I'm squarely behind Tony Blair and the action being taken. It has to be done. This is inevitably going to hit the tourism industry - but we have to live with it and plan accordingly.

"In terms of business volume, I expect business to be fragile - it's inevitable that the war will be damaging. Generally, we have adapted our spending plans and are monitoring our Brazz chain. We are modifying spending and looking ahead. Our business is under constant review. This is a serious situation, but the time has come to support our troops in the Gulf and our prime minister."

Gordon Campbell Gray, managing director, One Aldwych, London

"The hotel is currently running at 93% occupancy and for the moment it's "business as usual", said Campbell Gray. There is no question of cutting either staff or rates. "Other hoteliers are heading for discount panic - this is a really bad route to go down."

Even so, Campbell Gray intends to keep a tight control on costs and scrutinise expenditure. There would be no spending on unnecessary luxury items, he said.

"It would be insanity not to be pessimistic, and I am the world's greatest optimist. I have a feeling that we are in for more than just a one-month war, and we need to be prepared."

Ian Crawford, board director, 3663

"It's too early for us to know how this is going to affect us. The whole thing will be driven by how long the war lasts: if it is all over and done in a week, or if it is more sustained. Fortunately, we are quite a balanced business, and if we have areas that drop, it picks up in others."

Galton and Tracy Blackiston, proprietors, Morston Hall, Morston, Norfolk

"We've just opened the local paper and read about Air Commodore Andrew Spinks, who lives locally, asking him how he feels about going to war and what he will miss. He said that although the food is good on his base in the Middle East, he will miss Morston Hall and can't wait to return to us when he gets back. We were so chuffed, but choked at the same time. I'm going to write to him and invite him for dinner as our guests when he returns.

"On a moral note, I don't know if we should be doing this as a nation; but in the meantime, I guess the only thing you can do is carry on. We had a guest who left yesterday, and as she said goodbye she said that she had been going to Greece this summer, but will come to Morston Hall instead. Another guest said a similar thing last week. I think a lot of people will feel nervous about travelling abroad and will want to holiday at home."

Tom Wright, chief executive, British Tourist Authority

"It is impossible to make accurate predictions concerning the effects of war with Iraq. However, we believe that the industry can make a speedy recovery, and we already have plans in place to meet the pent-up demand for travel to and within Britain once conflict is over.

"The new tourism body for Britain and England that comes into effect on 1 April will develop campaigns aimed at the domestic market in the short term; and in the autumn we will launch a short-breaks campaign in Europe to promote the best of British cities."

John Wood, executive chief, Burj Al Arab, Dubai

"I think it's ridiculous we're going to war. But as far as living in Dubai is concerned, I'm not worried in the slightest - I'd rather be here than in London or New York. For us, it's business as usual. People are obviously aware of what's going on, but there are no major differences. Occupancy is slightly down, but it's still very busy out here. Obviously, if things get really hot in the Middle East, then I would have to reconsider my decision."

Paul Freeston, managing director, Apetito Group

"Tony Blair can't have made a decision like this on a whim. He is the person in the hot seat, and I trust his judgement. In terms of the cost sector, short-term confidence doesn't affect us. We have very little exposure to the international travel markets. But over three years dips in public spending would have a great effect. It's an enormously important decision for the country."

Sir Rocco Forte, chairman and chief executive, Rocco Forte hotels

Sir Rocco said the situation in Iraq had already had an effect on business and that Americans had stopped travelling over the past two weeks, particularly to the company's hotels in Italy.

Sales that had seen a 20% growth in January over the same period last year had dropped to 6-7% growth in March. But he was "relatively optimistic" about the whole situation. "In the last Gulf War, once the war actually started things moved forward again. Provided everything is concluded successfully, then I think we will see momentum again quite soon."

Juergen Bartels, chief executive, Le Méridien

"Business over the past months has been as if we are at war already. We were affected by it before it began.

"When it's over we expect a sudden improvement, a sense of relief in the customer. There is a lot of pent-up demand in the tourism industry, and in the American businessman in particular. They have stayed away for quite a while and can't stay away much longer.

"At Le Méridien, we implemented cost-cutting measures last autumn and we're now paying travel agents 2% commission. We've also improved our marketing efforts through giving the customer added-value offers."

Robyn Jones, chief executive, Charlton House

"I haven't been out protesting, but I am concerned that Tony Blair is a man with a mission and isn't listening to anybody. I prefer there to be no war, but I also understand that the situation is complex and something will have to give.

As for business: like life, everything is on hold. People don't want to make decisions. Those who have to put business out to tender are doing it, but those who don't have to are looking at cutbacks. The downbeat climate is having an impact on customer spending, too.

"It's having an impact on us because we look after the Foreign Office, for instance. There is higher security and a need for greater understanding of the customer."

One day ScotHot, next day Iraq

The team of Army chefs cooking in ScotHot's Restaurant of Nations on Monday (17 March) were on tenterhooks waiting to see if they would be off to the Middle East later this week.

The chefs, from the Catering Support Regiment of the Territorial Army, were on standby to fly out to Kuwait to cook in one of the army base camps where they would feed the British and US troops prior to military deployment. From there, they will move into the field "when necessary", confirmed their commanding officer, Major Tim Yates.

The bronze medal-winning team, comprising Bob Oberhoffer, Kenny Young, Dave Waplington, Paul Wood, Andy Price and Paul Labinski, all have full-time jobs in the industry. They will join more than 100 of their TA catering colleagues already in Kuwait when they fly to the Middle East on the outbreak of war.