Gloom remains in scottish tourism

By Angela Frewin

Tourism in Scotland appears to have survived the effects of the strong pound, but businesses remain gloomy about their prospects for the current quarter.

With some European currencies 25% weaker against the pound than a year ago, it was feared that overseas visitors would find Scottish holidays too expensive, while UK residents were lured away by cheaper foreign holidays.

But September occupancy figures from the Scottish Tourist Board (STB) released last week show a static year-on-year performance rather than a serious slip.

And while the UK Tourism Survey shows a 4% drop in trips to Scotland between January and July 1997 to 5.9 million, spending actually increased to £875m, 4% ahead of inflation.

Tom Buncle, chief executive of the STB, described the figures as reassuring, though patchy.

Big hotels had fared best, he said, while small hotels, B&Bs, self-catering and visitor attractions had a tougher time, especially those in more northerly or remote locations.

This is reflected in the November Scottish Tourism Index from the Fraser of Allander Institute, which finds only large hotels and B&Bs more optimistic about business than a year ago.

While 35% of big hotels looked forward to increased business during the fourth quarter, measured against the same period last year, this was true for only 10-20% of other sectors of the industry.

But the 45% of businesses expecting a decline in overseas visitors this quarter may be heartened by predictions from the Royal Bank of Scotland of a slow but steady depreciation of sterling over the coming months.

Less promising is its forecast that a short-term rise in domestic demand may be checked by a downturn in consumer spending in 1998.