Go forward and don't look back

17 December 2003 by
Go forward and don't look back

It has reached that time of the year when we start reviewing the past 12 months. We can't help it. Whatever we do, wherever we do it, we all find ourselves taking a backward glance and asking the question: what was it like? Was it good for you? (The year, I mean.)

Well, was it good for you? As Caterer's pictorial history reminds us, many operators - not just in hospitality, but in all sectors - started the year dogged by uncertainty. Would there, or would there not, be a war? Even when it became clear that hostilities in Iraq were inevitable, no one knew how long they were going to last and what effect they would have on the economy in general; and so it was mid-May before anyone was confidently predicting a bounce back from a winter marred by rumours of mass distraction.

The hot summer began to lift everyone's spirits (although it turns out that the pubs didn't fare as well as they thought they might). Americans continued to be reluctant travellers, but some regions of the home market boomed.

The general consensus is that the past three months have seen a marked improvement in business. While it is too early to predict if this will develop into a long-term trend, the word on the street is that customers are spending more on leisure and that the industry is well placed for sustained growth next year.

The Government recently suggested that tourism, currently contributing £75b to the national economy, should be worth £100b by 2010. The drive to meet this target has to begin somewhere, so why not (in the words of the song) start it "right here, right now".

And that takes us on to the second part of the question: will it be good for you? What will next year be like?

On the basis of this, the last issue of Caterer for 2003, I forecast the following for next year: slow but sustained recovery, with a high around Euro 2004. A steady drizzle of tourists will move cautiously in from the west. Hotel companies listed on the stock market will continue to recede (by mid-year there will be only four of that breed left); all the others will be owned by Von Essen. The Big Four contract caterers will become the Big Three.

What do you think? Not bad for starters. What are your own predictions for the coming year? Why not let me know - send me an e-mail with your own ideas. I'll share the best ones with our readers. In the meantime, have a good Christmas.

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