You can put your faith in statistics

As I sit at my desk this morning, it is hard to believe that I work in the hospitality industry. Over the past two days, I have hardly seen a customer - fortunately, not because the hotel is empty (quite the opposite), but because I am snowed under with paperwork.

Before being able to plan ahead, we have to review our achievements and study our situation. We have been extremely lucky here at Eriska in that my father has set up simple cash-flow systems, which allow us to reflect on the past while identifying weaker areas for future attention.

But this, like all models, can never factor in the foibles of a true market, which is continuously affected by matters beyond our control.

For example, no sooner this year were we starting to recover from the devastation of foot-and-mouth than we were hit by the doom and gloom of the recession publicists.

I have always believed that, in order to make the best decisions, we have to have the best information. Some may believe that we rely too heavily on statistics but I am strongly of the opinion that, provided the information is correct, we must place strong credence on the evidence.

On our daily charts, we try to ascertain where our business comes from and, with only 17 rooms, we attempt to ask guests how they heard of us.

I may be to blame for any inaccuracies as, with one breath, I stress the importance of accurate information and, with the other, berate staff who fail to ask and secretly fill in a guessed answer.

So we have introduced a "don't know" category, which not only accounts for guests we don't ask but for those who genuinely don't know. I am sure that guests at the front desk often gaze over the receptionist's shoulder and give the name of a publication or award they see on the wall rather than sound ignorant about their selection of a hotel.

It never ceases to amaze me that, if you ask a hotel manager, he will always be able to give you his occupancy and a breakdown of guest nationalities, to the nearest decimal place, but when you ask his receptionist the figure can vary considerably. I wonder which figure is being used when allocating marketing spend.

BEPPO BUCHANAN-SMITH is director of the Isle of Eriska, a privately owned hotel on the west coast of Scotland Next diary from Beppo Buchanan-Smith: 1 November