What's in store in 2022?

Of course, challenges remain. The labour crisis, supply chain issues, and rising costs weren't resolved the moment Big Ben chimed midnight on New Year's Eve, and as we look to the spring we are also facing an onslaught of extra costs in the form of an increase in employment costs, business rates and a return to 20% VAT.

If the government wants the sector to play its full part in the nation's recovery and in its levelling-up agenda as we head into a general election in 2023, it needs to support the operators and workers who make up this special industry. There are a number of levers it could pull, but by far the most powerful would be to maintain the current rate of 12.5% VAT permanently, which would allow us to keep prices affordable for consumers and the UK to remain competitive with other global destinations.

Experiences are key

Sarah Willingham, hospitality investor, founder and chief executive Nightcap

I'm ever the optimist, so I'm hopeful that with the right strategies, the hospitality industry can flourish in 2022. Well-capitalised businesses will have an unprecedented opportunity to expand with more premium free property available in A1 locations than ever before. Additionally, consumers will want their freedom and the right to socialise and see their friends more than ever. We saw it in 2020 and 2021 – when we were allowed to open the doors people flocked. Our customers need a thriving hospitality industry.

In terms of which concepts I think will do well, shifting the focus towards experiential will be key; young people, in particular Gen Z and millennials, want more than just sitting down with their drinks – they want the bars and clubs they're drinking in to have elements of fun. I also think there will be more of a focus on the experiences of women; making our spaces safe for all will be essential.

The key themes of the past two years – the pandemic and Brexit – will be recurring issues for the industry, from recruiting to short-notice closures, but we must remain agile.

Ultimately, I remain positive for 2022. Nightcap launched this January amid closures and disruption. We were thrilled to announce outstanding year one results, having acquired three bar groups and with a very healthy expansion plan under our belts.

The hospitality industry is the best there is, full of brilliant people who have suffered a lot over the last couple of years, but will always put their best foot forward to find a way through. Demand will be greater than ever, and I know we will be there to meet this demand.

Good hospitality is irreplaceable

Emma Underwood, general manager, the Pem restaurant at the Conrad London St James hotel

I think the past year has shone a light on the value of hospitality. Our guests missed being taken care of, and we loved being able to provide this again. This year will see the continuation of these ideals.

Hospitality is a gift. The recognition of the front of house as you walk through the door of your favourite restaurant again, comfortable in the knowledge that you're about to enjoy a wonderful evening in their company, is irreplaceable.

It isn't just a service, our guests give us some of their most cherished moments with people that mean the world to them, with people that they have missed so sorely. Creating these moments for them is an honour and I know we will all revel in it next year.

Rethinking the working week and a Japanese boom

Luke and Stacey French, Jöro and House of Jöro, Sheffield

Stacey: We think the industry is going to bounce back quite strongly next year, but there will certainly be some changes. The working week has to change, and with the staffing crisis such a hot topic, it's not going to get any better until people amend their business structures.

We've always had a four-day working week, so we haven't had too much of a problem with staffing and retention, but industry leaders of prolific businesses also need to pioneer this – people are always going to be attracted to the bigger names, and if they have a bad experience at a bigger kitchen, it will put them off [working in hospitality].

Luke: Asian cuisine has been trending for a little while, but I really think Thai and Japanese will boom in the next year and have a lot more influence on menus. Japanese ancient fermentation techniques were put into the spotlight by the release of The Noma Guide to Fermentation by David Zilber and René Redzepi a few years ago, but it's taken a while for chefs to understand the procedures and the preparations. They're now getting more comfortable with them in their kitchens, so I expect we'll see more of those flavours on menus.

Due to Brexit and Covid, more than ever chefs are looking to use UK-grown foods, and because of the trend for Asian cuisine we're seeing growers in the UK focusing on wasabi, makrut and Japanese citrus fruits. I've also seen wood ants and insects being used to replace lemon because they're super-zingy, citrusy and sustainable. We've had a play with them in the past, and not everyone was ready for them, but I think in the next year to 18 months, given how the planet is looking and the cost of import/export, they're going to be accepted more.

Now is the time for growth

John Nugent, chief executive, Green & Fortune

If 2020 was all about lockdown, 2021 about stabilising the business, 2022 will be about growth and inspiring confidence. The big challenge on a national scale is to mitigate the effects of the virus.

There is an insatiable appetite from our corporate clients to deliver conferences, awards events, launch parties, and general hospitality occasions. We are in deep discussions to maximise these opportunities and deliver positive outcomes when the time is right. We will also have some further news about the growth of Green & Fortune in 2022, which is exciting for both our teams and the London market.

The restaurant and bar elements of our business moves on at a pace. We will continue to develop Rotunda at King's Cross and Daffodil Mulligan in Shoreditch into two established and mature businesses. No doubt loads of challenges ahead, but true hospitality spirit will prevail.

Contract caterers tap into the trends

Emma Perry, head of business development, Graysons

Excitingly, in 2022 we are set to enjoy prepandemic trends which have been honed and turbo-charged by our collective experiences over the past two years. More than ever, customers are clued up on important issues around planet, wellbeing and social justice. We have thus seen the welcome rise of the ‘independent specialist', synonymous with quality, sustainability and social conscience.

Independent restaurants top the high street, independent food and drink brands enjoy leading growth, and so too in foodservice, our café, restaurant and events customers want to work with smaller, boutique operators with quality, green issues and human impact at heart. The ‘bespoke touch' factors into this, and 2022 will see us leap forward from customisable food to entirely personalised nutrition, wellbeing and associated tech to compliment.

We find ourselves demanding better quality food and drink; tailored experiences; charitable, trustworthy businesses; holistic sourcing in all its glory; and overall, a life to be well balanced, enjoyed, and utterly worth living. Cheers to that as we ring in 2022!

The staycation trend continues

Craig Bonnar, chief executive, Travelodge

In 2022, I think we'll see a continuation of the staycation boom, with more families, couples and friends enjoying breaks in the UK than ever before, with short breaks being the predominant driver of leisure travel. Budget hotels will, I think, come to the fore with people valuing getting more for their money. This year we've seen budget hotels fuller than ever before, and I think that's going to continue next year.

The need for travel will be examined

Bernard Murphy, group managing director, Ralph Trustees

There is pent-up demand for [travel to] gateway cities globally but that will only manifest itself materially once the world is more settled and the rules around international travel stop frequently changing. Outside London, venues that are easily accessible and offer parking, averting the need to patronise public transport, will be desirable and, those who gave good value for money, quality experiences to Brits this year may well be rewarded with higher levels of staycation patronage from than was the case pre-pandemic – a new opportunity for those operators.

One concern is that some markets, particularly relating to commercial travel, will find themselves oversupplied. Exacerbating that is a corporate market that has seen travel and subsistence budgets at an all-time lows for two years now. They will not want to see these costs growing too much. Additionally, the onus on larger firms in particular to chart and report on progress in carbon reduction will further prompt questions as to the necessity of travel, and questions will be asked of us as suppliers about how our policies and activities will support those climate targets; an issue for those with older energy inefficient buildings.

Despite this I believe there will be demand, and people will want to engage with customers, build relationships, get their teams together and reward them. Hotels seeking business travellers will need to appeal to these desires and, I suspect, the days of the ‘dry' meeting, just sitting in a venue being talked at all day, have passed. Clients will want some fun and innovation as an incentive to travel.

All in all, another challenging year for operators in terms of manpower, supplies and rising taxes with resultant pressure on margin and operations as the industry gets back to its feet.

Technology will drive sustainability

Catherine Hinchcliff, head of corporate marketing and insight, Bidfood

In 2020 we were all in a state of shock, and 2021 has felt much like a rollercoaster. Although it's been a relief to see restrictions relaxing, supply has been tightening, presenting a different set of problems across the food supply chain.

While we all hope for a more promising 2022, turbulence always seems to be just around the corner, whether it's supply shortages, social restrictions or inflation. We expect these challenges to haunt us next year, but 2022 will also bring some positive challenges:

• Sustainability – following COP26, many businesses are recalibrating their strategies to set more stretching targets on net zero, plastic and food waste
• Technology, automation and innovation –there are an increasing number of advances coming to market that can help us manage reduced resources
• Menu agility – consumers want to splash out and are increasingly adventurous, and operators and suppliers are working more closely to share inspiration, and to manage costs, allergens and calorie labelling.

Trends in vegan dining

Adam Bateman, culinary director, the Grand, Birmingham

In 2022 I think hotels will have to focus on choice, modernisation, sustainability and experience. Our restaurant menu lists around 12 free-from and plant-based options, so people can come in and one can have a beef burger, and another can have a plant-based burger; one can have a hot dog, another can have a plant-based version.

It's vital to be inclusive for everyone. For the younger generation, while they might not be vegan, they do see these options as viable to allow them to do their part.

There's also been a change in the way people, especially that younger generation, choose where to go. They're not choosing a place because it's got three rosettes, or a Michelin star, or a named chef. They're choosing a place because it's the place to be seen. We need to consider in our design whether it will look good on Instagram and we need to work to be more experience-led.

The high street a few years ago was category-led, but now it's about experience. People might say let's go to Bill's or the Ivy rather than let's go for an Italian.

Learn some lessons from Europe

Des Gunewardena, chief executive and chairman, D&D London

As we end 2021 in the same way we started – with fear of Covid once again dominating our thoughts – it is difficult to think beyond trends that are directly related to the pandemic. How is our sector going to be Covid-proofed? Is it through the vaccines finally being triumphant, or through government continuing to provide financial support? More likely governments and people will learn to live with Covid rather than continually hitting the panic button.

Aside from Covid, the single biggest challenge facing our industry is, of course, staff. We are going to have to live with managing our restaurants and opening new ones in the context of fewer people being available to work in them. So we will see big challenges in how we organise ourselves – in our kitchens and on the floor, to make ourselves more efficient.

We need to work hard but also work smart. That means reviewing how we prepare food and invest in technology. We can see the future. It's already there in many European countries where employer taxes are so high that restaurants simply cannot afford to employ as many staff as we can in the UK.

Alcazar, our restaurant in Paris, is super-efficient. It employs a third fewer staff than it would if it was in the UK, but the quality of food and service can't match that of our best restaurants in the UK. The challenge for us, and for everybody is to make ourselves more efficient without sacrificing quality. The UK has been producing world-class restaurants over the last two decades. That must not come to an abrupt halt.

Achieving more with less is not just about procedures and technology. It's also massively about quality of people and training. I find it quite eye-opening watching the speed at which the servers at the best Parisian brasseries and cafés work – pouring beers, mixing espressos, preparing bills all simultaneously and at lightning speed. Our fruit farmers had a rather unpleasant first taste of that this summer. Our untrained Brits were no match for well-trained Eastern Europeans! So there will be a plethora of initiatives from restaurateurs to attract the very best staff they can, both from within and outside the industry.

We really do need to build back better. And we will. We have no option.

VAT rise to hit all facets of the industry

Simon Stenning, founder of forecasting specialist FutureFoodservice

The macro factors driving change in the foodservice industry obviously include the economic impact of rising inflation, especially in the food supply chain, which is pushing price rises onto menus and dampening consumer demand at a time when disposable income is being squeezed. The VAT increase reverting to 12.5% in October has not helped with this inflationary pressure, and we will see this worsen in April when VAT returns to 20%. We forecast that c.3pts will be passed on in menu pricing, and operators will take a revenue hit of c.4.5pts, slowing the industry down.

So, 2022 will see many challenges continue, but a return to normality after the winter will help foodservice recover further.

Our forecasts include the following developments:

• Total foodservice market in 2022 to reach more than £93b, still 5% below 2019 levels.
• Value propositions becoming more important and possibly offering scope for greater premiumisation
• More premium offers needing to offer an exceptional element that delivers great perceived value or ensure that there is a value-driven element to their offer.
• Fast food, pubs and restaurants will recover well, but the B&I elements of contract catering and city centre venues will take longer to return to full capacity.
• We don't expect a full return of inbound tourism until at least 2023, affecting hotels in key locations such as London.
• Domestic staycations will provide some balance, though we generally spend far less than international visitors
• Challenging recruitment and rising labour costs, so we will also see greater utilisation of technology solutions, such as replacing frontline order-taking staff with digital ordering screens.