Beef, fish and coffee costs to remain high for January menus

Beef, fish, coffee and cocoa prices will remain high for hospitality buyers in the coming months, predicts Lynx Purchasing.

Using insight from the range of suppliers that the purchasing firm works with, as well as official inflation data, Lynx’s Market Forecast Winter 2025 edition foresees an expensive period for hospitality operators.

There will be lower beef production in the UK, driven by farmers’ concerns about the cost of rearing animals, which will keep beef availability behind market demand, the report predicts. As supplies are tight, the situation is unlikely to ease for at least the first half of 2026.

Lynx’s data shows that supplies of cod and haddock are also under severe pressure, with demand significantly ahead of supply, and prices increasing sharply. It expects the situation to continue through the winter.

The purchasing specialised advised operators keep menu descriptions flexible to take advantage of changing availability of a broad range of white fish, such as hake and coley, but prices are expected to be high across the board.

With coffee commodity prices more than doubling since the start of last year as major producers such as Brazil and Vietnam struggle with the impact of extreme weather and climate change, higher prices are likely to continue. Cocoa crops are facing similar challenges as well.

However, there was some respite for vegetable costs, as brassicas such as broccoli and cabbage recovered well from the summer heatwave, with quality and availability good and prices stable. Lynx said that root vegetables such as carrots, parsnips and swedes were more negatively affected, and are generally smaller than usual.

“The focus now needs to be firmly on working with suppliers to trade through the challenging first few months of 2026,” said Lynx Purchasing managing director Rachel Dobson.

“Operators need to start promoting January menus now. Consumer confidence is likely to remain low in the new year, with any substantial fall in inflation unlikely to have an impact until the spring at the earliest.”

She added: “The good news is that many comforting winter dishes, from stews and pies to sausage and mash, can be made using better value cuts and seasonal produce. As ever, the best advice is to work with suppliers to make the most of produce when it’s at its best in terms of availability, quality and value.”