2004 The year ahead
Hotels
After the Iraq war, Sars and terrorism, it's hard to imagine the hotel sector could face any worse catastrophes in 2004. Indeed, there is evidence to show that the green shoots of recovery are pushing through. And although that recovery will be slow in the first part of the year, things are likely to become more buoyant as the year progresses.
The trend of adding value rather than resorting to discounting is likely to continue as hoteliers realise that once they have clambered down the discounting ladder it's a long haul up again. They will continue to chase new markets rather than putting all their eggs in one potentially volatile basket. And there's likely to be a continuing shift for hotel companies away from the stock market and into private ownership.
Jenny Webster
Products and suppliers
"Local" is set to be the buzz word for 2004 as caterers scour the land in search of regionally produced gems to add sparkle to their menus. With traceability and menu transparency on all our minds, prepare to see the likes of Cornish crab, Somerset Brie and Alderton ham on a menu near you. Equipment-wise, after interlocking and the Climate Change Levy, we're looking at more legislation impacting on caterers with likely cost issues to operators. Thanks, Brussels!
Diane Lane
Contract catering
Private contractors will be eyeing the defence sector as a growth area in 2004 as the Ministry of Defence's Pay As You Dine policy becomes more widespread. Meanwhile, NAAFI, the organisation that runs shops and leisure services for the Armed Forces, is pulling out of the UK, leaving private contractors to take over. About £400m of business is up for grabs.
Expect healthy eating and what the Government calls "sustainable food procurement" to dominate the education and healthcare markets. For large contractors, Private Finance Initiatives will provide new business opportunities.
The staff restaurant is not dying but evolving, and demand for a full service will remain strong at out-of-town sites. And there's good news on the event catering front: almost a quarter of corporate hospitality budgets will increase in 2004, while 65% will remain at current levels, according to a recent survey.
Ben Walker
Restaurants and bars
With City analysts at last predicting growth in the economy, the restaurant and bar industry will have a better time of it than of late, though that dreaded phrase "cautious optimism" must still apply. Britain's debt-ridden consumers will want better value as well as better standards, so midmarket restaurants, bars, brasseries and gastropubs can reap rewards.
2004 will be the year of the local restaurant or bar. With the congestion charge keeping motorists out of the West End of London, and the threat of terrorism, and poor public transport, diners will be eating out closer to home.
Restaurant and bar design will be more individual and eclectic.
Helen Adkins
Cheffing
Looking into our crystal ball, we predict that in 2004 tasting menus will continue their march out of London and into the provinces, thanks mainly to an increasingly sophisticated dining public and some talented and pioneering chefs. We also forecast a continued emphasis on organic produce - with prominent supporters like London chef-restaurateur Tom Aikens so committed to the cause, others will undoubtedly follow.
Headlining names for the next 12 months? Mr Aikens himself, we think, will continue to be one to watch. And look out for newcomers Glynn Purnell of Jessica's in Birmingham and Nathan Outlaw of the Black Pig in Rock.
Joanna Wood
