Andrew sangster's beer column
Last Tuesday the Chancellor decided what to do about beer duty and at the same time, if you believe the brewing industry lobbyists, he decided the fate of thousands of pubs and even more jobs.
This column was written some days before the Budget but there was every sign that Kenneth Clarke would merely freeze duty levels at existing levels. Anything more than a modest cut would be a big surprise.
As you read this (unless there was a surprise substantial cut) the brewers will be holding up their hands in horror. The Chancellor's reckless disregard for the industry, they claim, will cause pubs to shut and people to lose their jobs.
Virtually all brewers and all consumer groups have united to "axe the tax". The Brewers and Licensed Retailers Association (BLRA) argues that a 20% cut in duty would reduce inflation, put more money in people's pockets and, most surprisingly of all, help Government finances from year two of the cut.
These claims are backed by impressive research undertaken by Oxford Economic Forecasting contained in the BLRA's Budget submission, Facing the Facts.
But despite this evidence, I do not believe a duty reduction will be an unmitigated blessing for pubs in the UK.
There is a clear trend towards drinking at home and this stands every chance of being accelerated by widening the differential between off-trade sales and on-trade sales.
At the moment, the equivalent of a pint of bitter at Sainsbury's costs roughly a third less than that in the pub: about £1 as opposed to £1.50. If duty is cut to Continental levels, from 25p to 5p on a pint of standard bitter, then the respective prices are £1.30 against 80p.
So what? Well, this means the relative cost of a pint in a pub is now almost 40% more than that of a pint bought from a supermarket.
It would be surprising if drinkers did not switch to drinking at home more. Even the BLRA research admits that off-trade sales respond faster to price changes than those in pubs.
Given the growing threat posed by the off-trade, it is perhaps appropriate that I'm picking a beer from Marston's as the beer of the month. Marston's has a foot firmly in both the on- and off-trade camps. It has a thriving trade for its draught Marston's Pedigree and produces Tesco's own-label bottle conditioned ale.
For me, however, Marston's outstanding product is its Owd Rodger. A thick, treacley beer with a heady blast of alcohol to shake off the bitter weather we're suffering. It's a true winter warmer.
l Beer of the month: Marston's Owd Rodger, ABV 7.6%, is available in casks of nine and 18 gallons at £85.05 and £169.50 respectively, all plus VAT. There are also brewery conditioned 330ml bottles at £11.74 plus VAT for 12. Tel: 01283 531131.
