Industry facing a "reality shift", says expert

The hospitality industry is facing a "reality shift" following 11 September, according to a leading academic.

Dr Lalia Rach, the dean of the Tisch Center for Hospitality, Tourism and Travel, part of New York University, claimed the industry was "in struggle".

Speaking at the Hotel Report Special Crisis Seminar, which took place in London this week, Lach said: "We find ourselves confronted by events so beyond our control that no crisis plan could have forseen it."

She added: "We're facing a reality shift. We used to be able to look at the past and see it a road map for the present and the future." This was no longer the case

Lach said that the attitudes of consumers had changed radically and the usual methods for predicting occupancies needed to be rethought.

"People are focusing on today rather than tomorrow," she said. "Consumers are moving from ‘last minute' to ‘last second', and daily shifts are the norm."

Lach estimated that the US hotel industry has been losing $250m (£172m) a day since 11 September. Revenue per available room has dropped by an average 8-10% on 2000, and average occupancy has fallen by 4.7% to 60.7%. Restaurant sales in New York had plummeted by 47%.

"But it must be remembered that we are comparing these figures to a record-breaking 2000," she warned.

Lach predicted that recovery would begin in the second half of 2002.