Trends in high places

Crystal ball gazing is hardly a science, but with the aid of experience and insight it's possible not only to analyse current market trends but to take an educated guess at what the future may hold. To this end, Caterer got together with some of the industry's leading players to predict what's in store for pubs, bars and restaurants in the next five to 10 years.

The results were varied, but what quickly became clear is that, be it upmarket or casual dining, we'll all be eating out more. "There will be a huge increase in the amount of people dining out," said Paul Slattery, director of hospitality advisers Otus & Co. He predicts that in 10 years' time, 15 out of the 21 meals consumed a week (using a conventional dining pattern) will be outside the home.

Trevor Watson, a director with licensed leisure consultants Davis Coffer Lyons, agreed. He expects us to all be dining out much more frequently, with casual dining benefiting most from this switch. "The main competition for restaurants in the future will be from supermarkets offering high-quality pre-prepared take-away meals," he said, "so value for money will be critical."

The pundits also agreed that the future will be about evolution, rather than revolution. The industry can expect to see the continuation of the slow but sure blurring of the lines between traditional boozers and restaurants, for instance. And with clear signs that the UK economy is improving, the casual dining market looks set to carry on growing.

"I wouldn't be surprised if we also see the formation of the first gastropub chains," added Colin Wellstead, a director at property agents Christie & Co.

The one note of caution that will not be new to any hospitality operators is the thorny issue of staffing. Finding and retaining quality staff will be the key to transforming the image of the restaurant and bar sector, said our experts. Operators who can do this will be the ones to succeed, those who don't will fall by the wayside or be swallowed up by their more successful competitors.

Food for thought

Want to have an idea of what we'll all be eating five years down the line? Well, don't tell anyone, but it'll be pretty much the same as it's always been. But, when pushed, a few friendly chefs have given us one or two ingredients and cuisines that they think will be "hot" by 2010.

By far the most frequently mentioned raw produce was sea urchins, particularly the ones found off the French Atlantic coast. "They're a wonderful flavour and unbelievably perfumed, with a rose/violet floral nose and taste. But you've got to eat them within the hour," said Heston Blumenthal. Sea urchin roe got a look-in, too - as did gull's eggs - but that could have something to do with the fact that Galton Blackiston is plagued by the birds near his restaurant on the Norfolk coast.

When it comes to staples in the store cupboard and coldroom, the end of the decade might see the door opening on bottargan (dried fish roe), pimenton (smoked paprika), wattle seeds, crackle crystals (aka space dust), seaweeds, tonka beans, sea lettuce, yuzu lemons, marshmallow root, pomegranate molasses, foie de lotte (monkfish liver), Kobe beef, and lactic and malic acids - both in granule form (the former to bring out the flavour in meat dishes, the latter to boost the flavour of fruit).

Fashionable cuisines? We're going to continue to be influenced by South-east Asian food cultures, with Vietnam leading the field. Why? Because the food is light (no dairy produce) and incredibly healthy. Which brings us to food fads and allergies: they're not going to disappear, and chefs will have to be aware of more and more life-threatening allergic reactions their diners might have. There is a limit, though, to a chef's patience: "There'll be an allergy to hair follicles next and a twig diet, I suppose," one (unnamed) chef remarked.

Finally, fish. With stocks in the sea continually being depleted through overfishing, new and underused species and farmed alternatives will be used. Think mackerel, hake, sea eel, skate, brill and smoked haddock for comebacks; sea bass and halibut for farmed; ling, grouper and sea crayfish for new.

Thanks to Galton Blackiston, Heston Blumenthal, Martin Blunos, Claude Bosi, Richard Corrigan, Peter Gordon, Morfudd Richards and Andrew Turner

The eco-restaurant

The Inn on the Park restaurant, due to open in London's St James's Park this spring, is being championed as a forward-looking, eco-friendly initiative and part of a Royal Parks Agency plan to "green up" its catering operation in concessions at eight royal parks.

The 200-seat £3m new-build restaurant is in the safe hands of Oliver Peyton's Gruppo Group, owner of the Atlantic Bar & Grill and Isola, and will feature a turf-covered rooftop boardwalk made of sustainable larch and allowing natural ventilation. Food ingredients will be organic and seasonal, sourced from small English producers that must pass annual inspections, and the information will be passed on to diners. The building, situated on the site of the old 1960s Cake House, is being constructed under a gently sloping grassy mound, allowing an uninterrupted view of the lake from the Mall.

biodynamics, organics and boutiques

Organics? No, get with the times. According to our most clued-up chef, Heston Blumenthal, the future's in biodynamically grown produce - food grown non-chemically by farmers following the lunar pattern. It's all to do with how the pattern of the moon changes the way nitrogen and other trace elements behave in the soil. This affects how crops are grown and, consequently, how they taste. (Actually, it's probably how Farmer Joe grew his fruit and veg 400 years ago.)

Don't think that organic is going to disappear in a puff of smoke, though. Growing public interest in the traceability of food will ensure there will continue to be a market for food whose source can be verified; it's just that most chefs don't think that organics will become the norm at all levels of the industry. "If every restaurant in the UK went organic, the farmers wouldn't be able to cope," pointed out chef Peter Gordon, "and the prices would remain high because there wouldn't be enough produce."

Want another buzz phrase? Try "boutique farming", another past-times practice catching up with us. Really, it's a new way of describing small farmers producing and rearing food according to artisanal methods in as natural a way as possible. It's all to do with getting back to more natural (ancient) ways of producing raw ingredients, isn't it?

Not everybody's going to get carried away with the back-to-nature tag. We're talking chefs, after all. "It's the quality of produce rather than the origin that's important," said Claude Bosi. However, if that means it's farmed in a natural way, so be it.

Thanks to Galton Blackiston, Heston Blumenthal, Claude Bosi, Richard Corrigan, Peter Gordon and Andrew Turner

Whither wine?

Kerner. You heard it here first. This is the grape variety currently being touted by a top San Francisco restaurant wine buyer. What on earth is it? Good question, and one I had to ask. It's a (recent) cross between Riesling and Trollinger and is planted mostly in the Rheinhessen and the Pfalz. What is it doing on a restaurant wine list? Well, you'd better ask Debbie Zachareas that question.

She has put together one of the city's - and the USA's - top wine lists at Bacar and at her new place, the Ferry Plaza Wine Merchant. And, boy, does she like to set trends. A visit there last weekend saw drinkers to my left quaffing Argentinean Torront‚s, while drinkers to my right sipped unpronounceable Basque wines.

And she practically made obscure Swiss variety Chasselas a household name when many restaurants followed her lead by offering it by the glass.

But don't panic, the UK is generally about three years behind the USA on the wine-trend front (or any trend, come to that), so you don't need to stock up on Kerner just yet. Anyway, we're still awash with oaky Chardonnay, with Jacob's Creek hogging the top spot.

When will its reign end? Well, London brewer Young & Co, with its 210 pubs, is looking at listing an Aussie unwooded Chardonnay after the success of its South African unwooded Chardonnay last year - which is a start.

On the red front, Shiraz, Cabernet Sauvignon and Merlot remain the most popular red grape varieties. "People want younger wines that are easy to drink, with nothing too tannic or acidic - softer wines with a lot of fruit, a little oak and good colour," moaned a top Paris sommelier recently. His list was full of the opposite.

In the USA, though, Pinot Grigio is the grape on everybody's lips. "If I'd known, I would have planted a lot more," admitted Roger Trinchero, president of giant Californian producer Sutter Home. "People love to say Pinot Grigio. Americans love to get hold of a sexy name," he added.

They rather liked the words Pinot Noir, too, said Trinchero. "But it hasn't taken off in quite the way some predicted it would. There's a lot of people here turning to Syrah - and we're planning on expanding our Syrah," he revealed.

There is also a general willingness to experiment. At Lola's in London's Islington, owner and wine buyer Morfudd Richards reports that her wine flights (tasting samplers) are still going strong. And, in general, sales of wines by the glass are growing - Young's will have 25 pubs offering 18 wines by the glass when its new list is launched in April, with 12 wines the minimum.

One thing's for sure: wine consumption is soaring. Wine is now the most frequently quaffed alcoholic drink, and glugging wine was up by 10% last year on the previous year's figures (AC Nielsen).