Your Shout: Jeremy Hill, Christie & Co

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It's ironic that, although the best time to sell a hotel is when demand exceeds supply and values are rising, owners are less inclined to sell. With interest rates at historically low levels and trading stable, hotel owners are content to watch the value of their investment rise while, at the same time, the business continues to generate an acceptable level of income. As a result of the lack of available properties on the market in 2003, demand exceeded supply. This shortage of properties - which affected all types of hotels across all areas of the UK - meant there were many disappointed buyers, whose confidence in the hotel sector remained high throughout the year. This year, we're predicting there will be a slight, but not dramatic, easing of supply, and that demand will continue to outstrip supply, ensuring that hotel values remain robust. We expect 2004 to be much better for the hotel sector than 2003, and we confidently predict that the growth in hotel values - 11.5% in 2003, according to our price index - will continue throughout 2004, driven in part by a continued shortage of quality businesses available for sale. There's also mounting evidence that we're likely to see an improvement in hotel trading, with rises predicted in occupancy levels, average room rates, and revenue per available room (revpar). Despite the problems of the first half of 2003 there were remarkably few casualties, with the exception of hotel chain Le M‚ridien. This is no doubt because hotel businesses emerged from the recession of the late 1980s and early 1990s "leaner and meaner". The shaky start to 2003 also did little to discourage buyers. If there's a continuation of the "green shoots of recovery" seen at the end of 2003, this year will allow operators to raise revpar and, subsequently, profits.