No such thing as a short war
Officially, a war with Iraq remains undeclared, but 30,000 British troops and one-third of the Royal Air Force haven't gone to the Middle East for a spot of R&R and, despite the continued debate, hostilities seem inevitable.
The question for us, then, is how will the conflict affect the UK hospitality industry?
In the short term, there will be the obvious effects - consumers staying at home to watch the conflict on television (the so-called CNN effect), thus damaging retail and leisure spend; petrol prices rising, which will hit the supply chain; and tourism worldwide being hit, with North American visitors refusing to travel abroad (again).
Hospitality suffered from this kind of thing after the Gulf War and eventually recovered, but this time round the industry is still not back to full strength following foot-and-mouth and Ground Zero, and further knockbacks at this time may sink a few operators.
But it's the long-term consequences of a war, any war, that are more worrying. If the Allies win, what will that lead to? The cost of occupying and rebuilding Iraq will be a drain on resources, just at a time when the UK and US economies are trying hard not to falter.
And the fall of Baghdad will not end the war on terrorism. There are other trouble spots in the world that the USA, with its rediscovered sense of planet-policing, might feel obliged to sort out - North Korea, Indonesia, regions of Africa, Israel and Palestine. Where will it end?
Some of these potential conflicts may or may not be justified and may or may not involve the UK, but you can be sure of one thing: the world has changed and business will need to keep pace with a new environment of ongoing attrition for a while yet.
By Forbes Mutch, Editor, Caterer & Hotelkeeper
