Pubs enjoy 6% sales growth

Sales in UK pubs grew by 6% to £18.2b in 1995, despite a decline of 1% in the total number of outlets, according to estimates in a Marketing Strategies for Industry (MSI) report.

The study, Public Houses: UK, states that the number of pubs fell from 68,400 to 64,900 between 1991 and 1995. MSI says the drop was mainly caused by Government legislation following the 1989 Monopolies and Mergers Commission report into the supply of beer.

This decline in pub numbers will slow, predicts MSI, so that by the year 2000 there will still be 64,100 pubs. The study states this is because the industry will stabilise following the restructuring after the MMC report, which saw the closure of pubs considered uneconomic by operators.

What will change in the next few years, however, will be the importance of food as a source of pub's income. The table shows that food will account for a quarter of the average pub's turnover by the year 2000 while alcoholic drink's share will shrink.

But MSI warns that pubs face increased competition from other leisure facilities in the food market and any moves to abolish restricted licences which currently apply to restaurants - a prospect considered likely by some in the industry - would have a particularly hard impact.

The sale of alcoholic drinks in pubs is expected to be further hit by the influx of imports from continental Europe. Another factor will be the decline in number of 16- to 39-year-olds in the population, who are traditionally the heaviest drinkers.

The number of managed pubs is expected to expand by 3% in the latter half of the 1990s, reaching 14,200by the year 2000, compared with 26,500 free houses and 23,400 tenanted pubs, predicts MSI.

Given the move towards food, MSI not surprisingly believes that food-led pubs will increase in importance, growing in number by 3% to reach more than 27,700, accounting for 43% of the total number of pubs.

• Public Houses: UK, costs £236 from MSI. Tel: 01244 681424.