Cheer up, it might never happen…

Things are bad enough, says Stephen Evans, but they're not disastrous.

A few weeks ago, I spoke at the Institute of Directors conference on buying and selling private companies. It was a return engagement, as I had spoken at the same conference back in March this year.

It was the same line-up of speakers - venture capitalists, advisers from the Big Five firms, and people like myself, who have been there, done that and got the T-shirt. There were roughly 100 delegates each time and, on both occasions, the conference was held at the Pall Mall centre.

It was interesting to compare the mood in the room on the two occasions.

First time around, it was pretty upbeat. I'd say there were equal numbers of buyers and sellers in the audience, and the people planning to dispose of their companies were there with the long-term view in mind. They weren't planning to dispose of their businesses tomorrow, but they were mindful of capital gains tax taper relief, which comes into full effect next April.

In October, there was a real swing, with, I would say, approximately 80% of the audience looking to exit their businesses - and sooner rather than later. These were owners of companies involved in the manufacturing and service sectors.

It brought it home to me that the economic downturn is a fact of life for all of us, irrespective of the industry in which you work.

We all know the disasters that have struck the hospitality sector over the past 12 months, and it is understandable to feel down about them.

It helps, though, to set our own situation in the context of other industries and the long-term business cycle.

Telecoms and IT are by far the worst-hit sectors, with more than 370,000 job cuts in the year to October. Airlines haven't fared too well, with 127,600 job cuts. Our problems pale into insignificance beside theirs, with just 5,900 job cuts in hotels and tourism.

According to recent figures from Foodservice Intelligence, restaurants are down by about 5% against last year. OK, it's not great news, but it's not a disaster either. Shares in leisure businesses aren't storming ahead, but nor are we seeing prices plummet and 95% of the value wiped off a company overnight.

In my last Viewpoint (Caterer, 4 October, page 17), I suggested that there were ways we could all protect ourselves before any recession really started to take hold. I hope I didn't come across as too much of a doom-and-gloom merchant, because my experience at the IoD really cheered me up.

The room was full of people preparing for an exodus from their businesses - but not one, as far as I could see, was a restaurateur or hotelier.

Stephen Evans is chief executive of Food That Delights; non-executive director of Dineline; chairman of First! Venues; and a member of the national committee of the Restaurant Association