2024 predictions: What does the next year hold for hospitality?

"This will be driven, at least in part, by a growing number of food brands and food service providers – ourselves included – featuring carbon labelling on goods and menus. In alignment with this, brands and foodservice businesses will be talking increasingly about lower-carbon menus and what constitutes a low-carbon meal aligned to the science.

"The knock-on effect will be an overdue increased appreciation of the impact of food systems – including food production, consumption and waste – on the climate. This is a crucial development for net-zero ambitions, given that around a third of all greenhouse gas emissions are generated in this way."

Rak Kalidas, managing director of Built by Levy, on the convenience of technology

"Operators need to look towards technology when looking at enhancing experiences for consumers – if they don't they're in danger of being left behind. Technical innovations are a driving force when it comes to improving speed of service and consistency of the consumer food and beverage journey at sporting, leisure and entertainment occasions.

"Next year is all about pushing boundaries, I think self-service options will become commonplace as more and more customers demand the tech which is becoming part of everyday life."

Matt Thomas, managing director of Restaurant Associates, on office culture

"I don't think the rhythm in terms of work-life balance is fully established yet, so for 2024 I'm optimistic that the volumes of people coming back to the office will return. The pinch points on Monday and Friday shoulder days will be less obvious and will blend out.

"Food will remain the primary catalyst for people returning to the office – food creates engagement, collaboration and happiness. Some of the pressures around the availability of people have softened and we've retained our people – historically attrition was 34%-38%, but we're now at 25%. What's interesting is when growth occurs, people learn that they can stay with the same employer and grow their skillset, which is really important.

"Finally, good quality caterers will talk about environmental, social and governance, net zero and social promise, and that should continue. We should be confident in leading the charge in those areas."

2024 in products

Catherine Hinchcliff, head of corporate marketing and insights at Bidfood, on what will make customers want to eat out

"Choice and proximity are the top two growing reasons which will encourage consumers to eat out frequently in 2024. However, value for money and quality experiences remain the most important factors driving consumer choice. According to our research, 77% of consumers identify as value-led , but that means far more than a low price or promotions. In fact, for many it means innovative, quality-led menus coupled with immersive experiences that elevate the occasion – treat and celebration are key ‘missions'. When planning menus for 2024, operators should consider not only value but authenticity, quality, provenance and the overall experience – all factors consumers will pay a little more for.

"A few things from our bakery range we expect to do well in 2024 are mini caramel doughnuts and mini caramelised biscuit beignet due to the more manageable size and added value for customers looking for a smaller portion. We also expect world foods such as bao buns and flavour contrasts like sweet and sour to be popular."

Barney MacAdam, taste creator at Santa Maria, on the growth of snacking

"Snacking is thriving across out-of-home, with a 24% uplift in servings growth across all meals throughout the day. Consumers are craving affordable ‘treat' experiences, and snacking delivers on the mega trends of convenience, value and indulgence.

"Customisation is huge too, so personalising snacks – by adding spice, serving with dipping sauces or loading with different toppings – is ideal, and means they can be offered either as bar snacks, appetisers or side dishes."

Anna Clapson, insights manager at Creed Foodservice, on consumer trends

"Consumers are far less forgiving because they are spending so much more now; they won't accept style over substance. Operators need to get their core offering right by making sure you serve a great cup of coffee, every time, and offer dishes that are consistently flavourful and great tasting.

"A big trend will be ‘adventure'. Consumers are looking for an exciting or unique food and drink offering when dining out so inject adventure through various cuisines, punchy flavours and enticing food formats – things that can't easily be replicated at home.

"Sweet bakery products, such as recent developments like viennoiserie twists, cruffins and cronuts, will continue to be popular and be in high demand. These are often ‘lower ticket' too than a whole meal, so please consumers with price as well as the indulgence element.

"Condiments and seasonings are another opportunity to inject excitement. We're seeing more flavours popping up and it's a quick way of getting different key flavours from global cuisines into dishes. Koji, a Japanese ferment used in many important Japanese seasonings and ingredients is popular. It's a umami flavour that is predicted to be even more popular as consumers look for layered, complex flavours."

Lawrence Ager, culinary sales manager at Kraft Heinz Company, on protein and veg

"In 2024 the protein landscape will be transformed, favouring low-cost cuts and a resurgence in slow cooking. Think chicken thighs, beef brisket or shin, and pork chump. Plant-based choices will evolve beyond substitutes, featuring innovative options like smoked carrot hotdogs, Bombay mashed potato burritos and Middle Eastern whole roasted cauliflower. The allure of smokey flavours persists, accentuated by the art of fire cooking, elevating culinary experiences to new heights."

2024 in hotels

Laura Cherrington, director of sales and marketing at Billesley Manor Hotel and Spa in Stratford-upon-Avon, on catering to the eco-conscious guest

"The shift towards increased sustainability is not just a response to consumer demand – it's a recognition of the critical need to address environmental concerns within the hospitality landscape. Guests are no longer just seeking comfort and luxury; they are consciously opting for eco-conscious establishments that align with their values. Consequently, hotels are compelled to reevaluate their practices and undertake substantial measures to reduce their carbon footprint. The emphasis will be on offering authentic experiences rooted in sustainability and a deeper connection to the environment and community."

Dan Rose-Bristow, owner of the Torridon in Wester Ross, on luxury resilience

"Even in the luxury market travellers are more conscious of spend, yet they seek more immersive and personalised experiences. The Torridon has introduced an ‘All-Inclusive Escape' offering an added value experience including everything that the hotel has to offer, while removing the need to decide what parts to enjoy. With accommodation, all meals and unlimited drinks included as well as selected indoor and outdoor activities, we feel this is the perfect answer for our guests – and all-inclusive breaks are not readily available in the UK, which makes it quite unique, too."

Anne Golden, general manager at the Pan Pacific London, on unlocking growth through experiential offerings

"All signs point to this being a challenging year for London hospitality and one in which we will need to work harder and smarter. However, in conversations with US travel advisors they are confident about a robust ultra-high-net-worth individual market in 2024, the continuing emphasis on "high touch" and experiential travel.

"Other highlights will hopefully include a re-emergence of the Chinese and south-east Asian market travelling to Europe in Q3 and Q4 and more demand for London during the summer driven by less availability in Paris for the Olympics."

Arnaud de Saint-Exupéry, general manager of Hyatt Regency London – the Churchill and area vice-president for Hyatt hotels, UK & Ireland, on the issue of staffing

"Staycations will remain, especially around business and leisure (or bleisure) trips. People from Asia will definitely travel more. In the next few months, group business and events – maybe a company coming for a corporate meeting or basically as an incentive – will remain for next year. The Americans will also travel a lot because the exchange rate is still good. I am optimistic because some of the costs are going down. You can see inflation in the UK was 4.6%, so it's going down, the utilities are also going down so the purchasing power is going up, and the government just agreed recently on reduced National Insurance, so potentially you have more purchasing power.

"The challenge for us in the UK is staffing. Covid means a lot of people left and that was on top of Brexit. Brexit meant we need sponsorships and visas to employ those from outside the UK, and I think this is becoming a challenge because we have more hotels but the workforce in the UK is still what it used to be or less. There is an inflation of wages because you have less workforce and more luxury properties. We see more inflation of wages because new hotels want to have talent too, so they increase the salary and they potentially get someone from a different property, so there's inflation within the industry."

2024 in restaurants

Tony Rodd, chef owner of Copper & Ink, London, on changing to meet diner demand

"The trends we'll see next year will be logistical, there's going to be a change in the way restaurants operate. With a lot of people still working from home, it's changed the way they socialise. There used to be a lot of people going out on a Friday or Saturday but we're starting to see they go out on a Sunday or Thursday instead. So, I expect we'll see more restaurants changing their operating hours, perhaps opening on a Monday or Sunday and closing on a Wednesday.

"I expect we'll start to see chefs moving to shorter format menus, partly down to staffing issues but also to reduce wastage and keep dishes seasonable and affordable.

"In terms of food trends, we might see more of a back-to-basics approach where restaurants look at more traditional recipes that are clever at using ingredients well and not relying on luxury items.

"Trying to cook seasonally has got more difficult because the seasons and weather have been more unpredictable. We might see more people taking a Scandinavian approach where they make the most of food that is bountiful to use it later by pickling, fermenting, smoking and curing ingredients. It's good for the bottom line as well.

"The reality is we're going to see a lot more restaurant closures this year. What I'm hearing in the industry is a lot of people saying December was down and they might not make it into the New Year. Unfortunately, until we get a change of government, I'm not sure there is going to be a big change to help with issues like tax. Cost of sales and our energy bills are horrific. I think it will improve but it's going to take time to get there, I just hope as many restaurants pull through as they can."

Stosie Madi, chef and co-owner of the Parkers Arms, Newton-in-Bowland, Lancashire, on small business resilience

"It will be a difficult time for hospitality if the government does not cut the VAT rate and reform business rates. With wages going up in April, I feel smaller businesses may fare better because they will have better control over short-term decisions on costs.

"Maybe West African food will finally reach mainstream recognition. There may be fewer sales of processed vegan food, but better awareness of sustainable seasonal ingredients due to people having less money in the shopping purse."

Kate Nicholls, chief executive of UKHospitality

"This year has been a challenging one for the sector and, while I've come to learn not to forecast calmer waters on the horizon, there are plenty of positives to focus on in the year ahead. The hospitality sector continues to grow six times faster than the economy as a whole, contributing £30b annually, generating one in every six net new jobs, investing £10b a year into our high streets and £54b in tax to fund vital public services.

"At UKHospitality, we will continue to act as the voice of the industry on key issues – including workforce, regulation, food, reducing business costs, and more – which will require additional focus given there's almost certainly going to be a general election in 2024. Therefore, we will make sure our voice is cutting through and that we are working with members and sister trade bodies to ensure hospitality remains front and centre when policy is being developed.

"We will do this by focusing on our three core pillars of growth, investment and jobs, calling for a lower rate of VAT, a root and branch reform of business rates, and ensuring employers are encouraged and rewarded to invest in their people. There's no denying that there will be difficult periods in the year ahead, but if there's one thing we know for certain it's that hospitality can pride itself on its resilience and the willingness of individual businesses to support one and other."